The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) assessed the economic activity of Uzbekistan's regions over five years using satellite data.

March 24, 2026, Tashkent. The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) used satellite data on nighttime lights (NTL) to assess economic activity at the regional and city levels in Uzbekistan.

Analysis of satellite data on nighttime lights shows that higher light intensity corresponds to higher levels of economic activity and urban infrastructure development.

The CERR analysis demonstrated a high degree of consistency between satellite indicators and official statistics. Specifically, according to estimates based on NASA nighttime lights data, nominal per capita gross domestic product growth in Uzbekistan from 2020 to 2025 was 80.3%, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 15.8%. Over the five years, GDP increased from $2,090 to $3,887. For comparison, according to official statistics, per capita GDP growth over the same period was 81.8%, with an average annual growth rate of 16.1%, increasing from $2,048 to $3,881.

Economic Activity in Large and Medium-Sized Cities

According to data, over the past five years, the largest increase in gross regional product per capita among regions was observed in the city of Tashkent, where the indicator increased by approximately $5,000, reaching $9,300 by the end of 2025 (according to statistics, $9,200).

According to estimates, in 2025, the highest gross regional product per capita was also observed in a number of large and medium-sized cities across the country. In Navoi, the GRP per capita was $9,300, in Zarafshan $7,900, in Samarkand $7,200, in Kokand and Andijan $6,700 each, and in Akhangaran, Yangiyul, and Bukhara, it ranged from $5,800 to $5,200, respectively.

Relatively high growth rates of the gross regional product per capita were also noted in several regions of the country. In the Tashkent region, the indicator increased by $1,800, reaching approximately $4,000.

In Navoi region, growth also amounted to $1,800, bringing the GRP per capita to approximately $4,000. In the Fergana and Syrdarya regions, this indicator increased by $1,600, reaching approximately $3,500 and $3,400, respectively. Economic Activity in Small and Medium-Sized Cities

Relatively high per capita gross regional product (GRP) figures were observed in a number of small and medium-sized cities. In Termez, the figure was $5,100, in Margilan and Chirchik approximately $5,000, and in Namangan $4,800. Economic activity also remains relatively high in the cities of Kagan and Urgench.

Economic Activity at the District Level

Among districts, the highest GRP per capita growth rates from 2020 to 2025 were observed in the Mirabad district, where the figure increased by $7,100, in Yakkasaray by $6,300, and in Chilanzar by $5,600. As a result, the GRP per capita in these districts exceeded $10,000, which is almost three times higher than the average for other districts and cities in the republic. Among the districts, the highest rates of economic growth were also observed in the Karmaninsky district, where the indicator increased by 2.5 times; the Yashnabad and Bektemir districts by 2.4 times; and the Sergeli, Yangi Khayot, and Mirzo Ulugbek districts by 2.3 times.

Expansion of areas with high economic activity

Using nighttime light data allowed us to assess urbanization processes at the district level. Specifically, between 2020 and 2025, the number of areas with high nighttime light intensity (NLI above 10), typical of urban agglomerations, increased from 22 to 31. Meanwhile, the average gross regional product per capita in these areas increased from an average of $3,800 to $7,000. At the same time, over five years, the number of districts with low nighttime light levels (NLL below 1) decreased from 129 to 85, confirming the transition of 44 districts to urban development.

In these districts, NLL increased on average more than 2.5 times, while GRP per capita increased on average from $1,700 to $3,200.

Conclusion

These results confirm that satellite data on nighttime light levels can effectively complement official statistics and be used for rapid assessment of regional economic activity.

This approach will help identify new areas of economic growth and more accurately target government support for infrastructure development and investment activity in the regions.

Abdulaziz Gaibullaev, CERR

CERR Public Relations Service

Tel.: (+998) 78 150-32-20 (417)